Spin, Flip, Toss: Discovering Probability Through Experiments

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Maths · My World Quest — full scheme of work · pioneer

Spin, Flip, Toss: Discovering Probability Through Experiments

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For grown-ups

Companion summary

Have you ever wondered why a coin sometimes lands heads five times in a row, even though heads and tails seem equally likely? Scientists, doctors, and game designers all use experimental probability to make real decisions based on actual results. The more times you repeat an experiment, the closer your results creep toward the true probability — mathematicians call this the Law of Large Numbers. When you finish, try flipping a coin 50 times and recording every result — watch how the pattern settles over time.

A Coin That Won't Cooperate

A Coin That Won't Cooperate

Imagine you flip a fair coin 10 times. You expect 5 heads and 5 tails — but you actually get 7 heads and 3 tails. Did something go wrong? Is the coin broken? Or is something else happening? Think about this for a moment before you read on. Your instinct about why the result was 'off' is at the heart of today's lesson.

💭 Think about this

If you flipped the same coin 1000 times instead of 10, would you expect to get closer to 50% heads, or further away? Why do you think that?